Oceans 2000

Ocean Futures decided to reassess the state of the sea. One of the more shocking discoveries was the accelerating destruction of coral reefs worldwide. The colorful, prolific, coral reefs might be the "canary of the sea." Many may not be concerned to learn that 10% of the world's coral reefs are dead. But the fact that many scientists now predict that 30% of the world's reefs will be gone within 20 years, and possibly 60% or more destroyed within 35 years, does cause concern to a wider audience. Such destruction is a threat to the food chain of the ocean, as coral reefs contain the greatest variety of life in the sea.

The oceans are essential to all of us in terms of:

A. direct food supply
B. the biologic "pump" consuming carbon dioxide and producing 1/3 to 1/2 of the world's oxygen
C. determining climate
D. transportation
E. recreation

The oceans not only cover nearly 73% of the earth's surface, they constitute more than 99.7% of the biosphere in terms of volume. The oceans are virtually a global ecosystem. Clearly, ocean issues are global. Problems cannot just be tackled at the local level, or even nationally. They must be addressed internationally.

Sources of major damage to the ocean ecosystem can be categorized as: overfishing, pollution, habitat damage, global and climatic forces.

To cite specific examples of threats to the oceans within each of these categories:

Overfishing

a. Fish is now the greatest protein source for the world's growing population. The natural limit or carrying capacity of the sea has now been exceeded by a growing population.
b. The FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) now believes that all 17 of the world's major fishing areas have either reached or exceeded their natural limits, and that nine are in serious decline. (40% of valuable US fish stocks are depleted; 43 % are fished to maximum sustainable levels.)
c. Despite a growing world population and improved fishing technology, the world's ocean catch peaked at a maximum of 100 million tons in 1989. In the next two years, it fell to 97m.t., and then 95m.t.
d. In New England alone, 22,000 fishermen are expected to be out of work in the next few years, an incredible 47% of the current fishing workforce of 46,721. When Canada shut down the cod fishery in 1992, 50,000 people were put out of work. It was just a few years ago that Canada's cod fishery was thought to be "inexhaustible".
e. As featured on the cover of the November 1995 National Geographic and in the lead story in Scientific American of the same month, there has been a drastic decline in the catch from commercial and recreational fishing worldwide.
Hardly an area has been spared, from the once rich Georges bank off New England, to the vast areas of the Pacific, the isolated Caribbean, and the polar regions. Even the populations of reef fish have been hard hit.
f. Fishing is subsidized, which unfortunately contributes to overfishing the sustainable capacity of the ocean. In 1993 for example, the global take from the sea was $124 billion. Government subsidies of approximately $54 billion, yielded prices effectively 44% below the true cost. The subsidies take several forms: low interest boat loans, direct assistance for vessel construction and operation, tax breaks, and payment of foreign fishing access fees.
g. Fish by-catch (waste) is a symptom of the destruction. In the US alone, 20 billion pounds of these unwanted, non-target species are discarded annually. This is twice the landed catch of commercial and recreational fishing. Shrimp trawlers have a horrible by-catch rate of 80-90%.
h. Even sharks are being reduced to critical levels. As a high level predator, sharks are a key element of the food chain. The threats range from the sport of "shark killing", to the Pactfic Rim demand for shark fins which drives the destructive practice of "finning," whereby the fins are cut off, the shark is thrown back to die.
i. "Enlightened fishing policies" have been driven by a concept called Maximum Sustainable Yield, or MSY. In theory, this is the amount of fish that can be taken annually without diminishing the fishery. However, the calculation is frequently grossly misleading due to poor information or non-linear changes in the ecosystem. For example, several years ago New Zealand fisheries biologists recommended a catch level of 47,000 metric tons annually as the MSY. Just a few years later they revised their estimate of MSY to 7,500 metric tons; the original figure was six times too high.
j. Combined with the imperative to overfish, technology is now having a severe impact. In some areas, commercial fishermen are using air compressors and other means to go deeper. Many species, ranging from conch to grouper, spawn in deeper waters. Now these predictable aggregations attract fishermen.
For example, the seasonal spawning Nassau grouper attracts dozens of spear fishermen using air compressors. It is a matter of time before they are decimated, or perhaps learn not to return to their spawning locations.
k. Given that we appear to be at the limit of the sea's productive capacity, we need to look at the issue of the kind of species we are eating. Eating "high on the food chain" is not particularly efficient. For example, a high level ocean predator such as a tuna eats as much as 25% of its body weight daily. For each pound of its flesh, it has consumed thousands of pounds of fish, that in turn have eaten tens of thousands of pounds of smaller fish, that in turn have eaten hundreds of thousands of pounds of small crustaceans, which in turn ate millions of phytoplankton (minuscule plants).
(To put our practice of eating high level carnivores such as tuna and swordfish into perspective, compare it to the land animals we eat. We eat herbivores, such as cattle and pigs, that we can cultivate. As plant eaters, these species are low on the food chain. In contrast, eating tuna and swordfish (wild predators) is analogous to eating antelope and lion as a routine diet. These species simply could not support the world's current population.)
l. Aquaculture has expanded the sea's ability to feed the world. It has provided an increased percentage of our fish and shellfish.
However, experts do not believe that aquaculture can cope with increasing human population and decreased yield from the wild. Fish farms create concentrated fish waste, and put uneaten fish food, as well as steroids and antibiotics (used in many diets) into the environment. Plus, stocks are increasingly subject to infection and disease.
Shrimp farming has often been cited as a good example of how technology can increase the yield from the sea. Yet the results have been mixed. During the 60s and 70s in Southeast Asia and Ecuador, massive mangrove forests were destroyed to build shrimp farms. Mangroves are critical natural fish breeding areas. Then, it was found that the highly acidic mangrove soil is inappropriate for shrimp and many failed. Additionally, as shrimp farms have become more crowded, there has been a significant problem of disease.
External threats to aquaculture include marine pollution, toxic phytoplankton blooms, and competition for coastal lands.

a. Sources of toxic substances contaminating the ocean range from city sewage to agricultural and industrial runoff, and even significant nuclear substances. Thirty miles west of San Francisco, 47,500 steel barrels containing plutonium, cesium, and mercury are scattered over 350 square miles of the ocean floor. There is now scientific concern that leakage could infiltrate the rich marine life. The former Soviet Union dropped dozens of intact nuclear power plants into the sea.
b. The problem of oceanic pollution largely starts in the major estuaries, with chemicals and nutrients, largely agricultural runoff, causing eutrophication (a situation where the water is so rich in nutrients, that the algae "chokes" the ecosystem, extinguishing most life forms). The decaying algae in the Mississippi River, for example, has created a 4,000 sq. mile "dead zone" off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. The shellfish have been killed and the fish displaced from the otherwise rich environment of the Gulf of Mexico.
c. While oil spills grab the headlines, they account for only five of the marine oil pollution. The majority of the contamination comes from automobile related sources, through the sewage system and as runoff. Each American city of five million people creates approximately 11 million gallons of oil pollution each year, about the same as the spillage from the Exxon Valdez tanker off Alaska.
d. Air pollution accounts for approximately one third of the toxic substances that enter the ocean. While the figure is a surprise to most, it simply follows the fact that air pollution is widely dispersed and the major surface area of the planet is the sea. Sources include cars, power plants and industry.
e. Marine pollution is a health hazard. There were at least 2,400 beach closings in 1993 in the US, more in 1994 and 95.
f. Due to contaminated water on any given day, 33% of U.S. shellfish beds are closed.
g. In the developing world, 1.7 billion people do not have sewage disposal systems.

a. Coral reefs are believed to contain the highest concentration of unique species in the ocean. Covering just 0.17% of the sea floor, they are home to an estimated 25 % of the marine species. They are now under assault worldwide.
Of the 110 countries with coral reefs, the reefs of 93 are in decline. It is estimated that approximately 10% of coral reefs worldwide have now been destroyed. Based upon current trends, 60% could be gone within the next 20 to 40 years. The causes of damage include:

1. Sedimentation from logging, farming, mining, dredging and other coastal activities.
2. Destructive fishing techniques such as dynamite and cyanide.
3. Coral "bleaching" which has become extensive worldwide. Bleaching is the phenomenon where the coral expels the algae (Zoaxanthellae). It is generally agreed that this is an indication of severe environmental stress, although it is unclear whether the cause is global warming, or general marine pollution.
4. Disruption of the ecosystem. (e.g., Overfishing and the extinction of sea urchins, causing algal smothering.)
5. Mining and export of coral for industrial use, and "live rock" (coral) for aquariums.
6. Tropical fish export for the world's $4 billion aquarium industry has a negative impact on the reefs. In addition, the removal of sea fans, starfish, and live shellfish for the enormous tourism trade and causes widespread destruction.
7. Anchor damage, mostly by cruise ship, and large vessels.

b. Reduced fish yield is closely related to habitat destruction as well as coastal pollution. 90% of the marine catch comes from coastal areas. Wetlands and estuaries are the nurseries for many fish species. We are destroying them on a large scale. For example:

1. San Francisco Bay, the largest estuary in the Western US, has lost 60% of its water area to land reclamation.
2. Of the original 220 million acres of wetlands in the lower 48 states, over 50% have been lost during the past 200 years.
3. Singapore has removed almost all of its mangroves and degraded the seagrass beds and 95% of its coral reefs.

c. Introduction of alien species is having a devastating effect on marine ecosystems. For example in the Great Lakes, the largest freshwater fishery in the world, zebra mussels totally dominate the ecosystem. They hitchhiked aboard a European freighter. First documented in 1988, they are devouring the food chain and displacing the fish.
d. Half the world's population lives within 100 km of a coastline. The population increasingly tends to live on the coast, increasing pressure on sewage systems, and filling in wetlands. By the year 2000, 13 of the world's largest cities will be on or near the coast. The population density drives much habitat destruction. In southeast Asia, where marine biodiversity is very high, 2/3 of the population lives within the coastal zone.

Global / Atmospheric (e.g. ozone depletion, global warming)

a. The oceans' most profound effect on the planet may be the regulation of weather and climate. Although some dispute the validity of Global Warming, the evidence continues to mount. While the melting of icecaps and the resulting rise in sea levels are cited as obvious consequences, there are other ominous effects that must be considered.
Changes to the oceans' temperatures could have a catastrophic effect on the planet's weather in the near term. Already "El Nino" is alleged to be a result of global warming. The diverse effects of El Nino range from increased hurricane activity to poor farming conditions in the US Midwest.
On a much larger scale, the Gulfstream, for example, is a powerful warm water current whose effects include making Europe temperate. Ocean currents are driven largely by temperature differentials. If the temperatures change, currents such as the Gulfstream could change. Small changes or shifts in the location of such a current would have profound effects.
b. The "ozone hole" is growing rapidly while the debate continues on proving the cause and effect. A recent UN scientific study group came out strongly suggesting that human activity is contributing to the problem. Under the ozone hole, the phytoplankton output has been reduced by 6-12%, and the tiny Antarctic krill are also exhibiting significant reduction.

Overview
It is interesting to ask, what is it about the ocean crisis that makes it particularly difficult? Our analysis identifies several aspects:

1. The ocean is the ultimate sewer. Eventually most things drain there, due to nothing more than gravity. This includes most substances poured in the ground, even hundreds of miles from the ocean; effluent into streams and rivers; and atmospheric pollution.
2. Problems cross political boundaries, making standards and enforcement difficult.
3. A concept called "Tragedy of the Commons." It occurs with common property such as government owned grazing land for cattle. Simply stated, it says that without a personal basis for long-term interest in a resource, the rational economic motivation is to over exploit it before someone else does. Since no one owns the open ocean, or the rights to fish it, self interest encourages nations or individuals to take what they can, regardless of good resource management or husbandry.
4. Population and development. Earth has nearly 6 billion people. The best projections are for the population to stabilize at between 8 and 12 billion, within the next 50 years.
5. There is a belief that the oceans are limitless and somehow beyond our influence.

Indeed, as documented above, the problems threatening the sea are not easy to solve. There is, however, reason for hope. We still may have some time left. There are many examples where we have solved environmental problems when we focus our efforts on a clear agenda. An example is saving the great whales from extinction. This happened largely through an international coalition.
The time is right as we approach the millennium. We are starting to see some unusual synergies. Even elements of the fishing community are expressing similar concerns to ours, now that the fisheries are devastated. The United Nations and several large foundations have focused significantly on these ocean issues. But we must act now. We are the generation that has seen a healthy sea, and are witnessing its unmistakable decline.

For a full list of references and more information on Ocean Futures, contact Ocean Futures, 2050 S. Santa Cruz St., Suite 1000, Anaheim, CA 92807. (714) 456-0790 fax (714) 456-0791.